Effect of substitutions on Live Betting: Does the Live Betting have to react to them
Substitutions are the most obvious way in which coaches can influence the outcome during the match.
A contribution to the match, such as a substitution ball, is highlighted. This is called a “super-substitution” and the event is immediately in the spotlight.
But do substitutes have a better chance of being distinguished than their partners who started the game with a whistleblower? The answer to this question can be vital for football bets.
Substituted attacking players have some advantages over their colleagues who played with the starting whistle:
– they are fresh;
– enter the game at a time when goals are usually scored more often;
– Towards the end of the match, players get tired and this creates more free space on the pitch;
– The intentions of the team may become more attacking.
A player who has been replaced for 70 minutes will only play 26% of the match time, but statistics show that 33% of the total number of goals are scored during this period. At the same time, if we compare this with the starting 26% of the match time, we get only 22% of the total number of goals in this period of the match.
Substitutions happen for a variety of reasons. Injuries and red cards in the match force coaches to make unscheduled substitutions. However, the most frequent reason for substitutions are tired and ineffective players.
As follows from the table below, 80% of substitutions are made after one hour of play. At the same time, it can be argued that almost all substitutions made before this time of the match are made for forced reasons.
Substitution models
Based on the table below, we can judge about the conservative trends in the role of the substituted players.
The most common type of substitution is to replace the midfielder with another midfielder: this is twice as common as the next two most popular substitutions, strikers and defenders, one for the other.
40% of substitutions entail some tactical changes, as players in one role change to players in the other. And, based on the table, more often these substitutions are aimed at strengthening the attacking line of the team.
Substitutions made to change the potential goals of the team are almost twice as likely to involve attacking players instead of their defensive colleagues. We can assume that such tactical changes are related to the intention to score more goals, but the opponent is also able to react and make some adjustments to the game.
In addition, a team that strengthens its attacking line with a large number of players exposes vulnerabilities to its own gates.
Although it is difficult for us to determine the impact on the course of a single substitution match, we can monitor the overall course of events that follow the substitutions of the attacking character.
Does the substitution game have an impact on the attacker’s character?
Each team has players with different levels of ability in stock. Therefore, if the attacking substitutions are effective, we can assume that this will happen more often in games between teams with high power imbalances.
In the 2012/2013 season, four large English teams – Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United – have made offensive substitutions in 40 matches against teams from the bottom of the table. Here are some statistics:
– On average, the substitutions took place on 69 minutes, and the average stay on the pitch of the substituted attacking players was 26 minutes;
– Almost 3/4 of these substitutions are the change of midfielder to nominal forward;
– Less than 50% of substitutions resulted in a goal: 24 goals in these 40 matches;
– the opponents differed in 27.5% of these games;
– The team that made the substitution of the attacking character scored more goals than the opponent in 35% of cases.
At first glance, we can say that the attacking substitutions are bearing fruit. However, we can easily calculate what were the chances of the teams to score goals in the final stage of the match, if we use the statistics and pre-match coefficients. Note that these data do not take into account such a thing as substitution, but from the collected results and coefficients it follows that the results are almost the same.
For example, if we simulate the segments of these 40 matches when the attacking substitutions were made and impose pre-match expectations from these games, we get 25 goals scored and 11 goals conceded. The actual result was 24 goals scored and 11 conceded.
Therefore, according to these data, one substitution attacker does not have a significant impact on the outcome of the match for both sides. More often than not, the goals are scored by the best teams, because they are superior to the opponent in the class and the expectation of goals increases during the match.
What does this mean for the players in the live race?
On average, attacking substitutions made in the last 20 minutes of the match or so have little or no effect on the chances of the team scoring a goal.
Therefore, if you think that the chances of a team’s goal have changed due to an attacking substitution, this is usually a subjective reassessment.